Oh, The Times, They Are a-Changin‘ ...

For the past two years, what exactly the phrase “there’s a light at the end of the tunnel” was meant to convey was wide open for interpretation. So often recited by the news media, pundits and economists, the phase conjured up different meanings for different people....often different meanings to the same people at different times of the day. Some saw the “light” as heralding the swift end to the current “recession”...for others the “light” signified the locomotive beam of a train which was not bound for glory... rather the unavoidable demise of our civilization as we know it and like to think of it. And others thought they had slept through their stop and were heading for the maintenance yard.
But, The Times, They Are a-Changin‘ : perhaps its not an immediate return to the salad days of the previous mid-decade, when an upward trajectory of values seemed both an entitlement and inevitability...but the specter of masses of Dr. Zhivagos and Laras surviving a bleak future by foraging for furniture and wood on the streets to burn for warmth has quietly morphed into better corporate earnings reports, stock market rallies, modest job growth and even the odd account of real estate sale stability in New York. Of course, these more optimistic sentiments are tempered by the looming Federal deficit, foreclosure overhang, skyrocketing price of copper and continued de-leveraging of a large swath of the economy. There’s a sword of Damocles around every corner. Yet, even coverage of the current turmoil in Cairo, while rightly a front page story, seems to be more balanced and less hysterical than it might have been 18 months ago. Looking either forward or backwards has some uses, most often to remind us that there is “no time like the present.”

So, what does all of this have to do with the State of the Real Estate Market in Big Sky? Well, it may be down, but its not out. In fact, its showing real signs of life. As explained in the intro classes of Econ 101, when demand increases, prices adjust upwards until ultimately demand slows which then puts pressure on pricing to decrease, and, with luck, revives market demand. A really scary scenario would be that prices continue to decline and no one comes to the party...and the result would be “economic obsolescence” and a “ghost town” (by the way, there are a few nearby well worth visiting on a nice summers day) or, like when the grocer waits too long to mark down the brown bananas and the fruit flies begin to swarm and banana bread is not even an alternative.

Happily, market activity in Big Sky is reviving: while not exactly vibrant, there are 21 transactions pending and 6 properties closed in January of 2011. The Big Sky demand rush had been so pronounced a few years ago and the market and expectations got way ahead of themselves...all that talk about Big Sky becoming the next Vail! (While Vail is a popular, if somewhat overcrowded and yet quaint ski resort in Colorado, its setting, overlooking the stunning I-70 corridor is rather unfavorable, so it’s unfair to compare Vail to Big Sky...).

Pricing adjustments are still somewhat in flux...with some pricing facing further pressure, while other properties (that old “location, location, location” thing) showing more resilience. The properties that were sold or are now “pending” run the gamut...from studio condos to vacant lots, from a Moonlight Chalet to single family Meadow home. But the range has narrowed considerably, and for Sellers and Buyers with a realistic expectation of selling or buying, that light at the end of the tunnel is less relevant. So, while the future is uncertain, and the past, well at least the recent past, should be all but forgotten, when you look over the alternatives, this is a pretty special place in the here and now.

By Eric Ossorio, Broker
Prudential Montana Real Estate
Big Sky Office
55 Lone Peak Drive Ste. 3
Big Sky MT
59716
eric.ossorio@prumt.com
406-995-4060